The Kentucky Derby is a spectacle, a betting frenzy, and a test of history against the unexpected. Every year, millions of dollars are wagered on the outcome, with bettors searching for the right combination of speed, endurance, and luck. Some rely on proven trends. Others take a chance on longshots, hoping to cash in on an upset.
As race day approaches, looking back at past trends and unforgettable victories offers insight into what might happen next. Will history repeat itself, or will a new name be etched into Derby lore?
Betting Trends That Have Defined the Derby
Not every Kentucky Derby winner is easy to spot, but history has left a trail of patterns. Specific trends have held strong over the years, shaping how bettors approach race day.
Prep Races Are a Powerful Indicator
Winning the Derby rarely happens by accident. Horses that perform well in key prep races often carry that momentum into Churchill Downs. The numbers back it up—70% of Derby winners in the last 40 years had already won a prep race.
This year’s top contender Citizen Bull secured major prep victories, further strengthening this trend. Other challengers, including Sovereignty, All other 3-year-olds, and Burnham Square, also have a winning record. While exceptions exist, a horse without a prep race win statistically fights an uphill battle.
Jockeys Play a Decisive Role
A talented horse means nothing without the right jockey. Race-day decisions can make or break a contender, and history and FanDuel Research show that experienced jockeys have a clear advantage.
Calvin Borel’s stunning win on Mine That Bird in 2009 proved how much a jockey matters. At 50-1 odds, the horse wasn’t expected to be competitive. But Borel’s rail-riding strategy allowed him to slip through an opening and win by six lengths. It was a masterclass in positioning and timing.
Familiarity is another key factor. Since 1980, 22 of 31 winning jockeys had already ridden their Derby horse in its final prep race. Those extra reps can mean the difference between victory and defeat.
Favorites Win More Often Than People Think
Big upsets steal the spotlight, but betting on the favorite has often been a clever play. Since 2010, the Derby favorite has won 50% of the time, an impressive hit rate in horse racing.
Between 2013 and 2019, the favorite won six straight victories. That streak ended in 2019 when Country House won 65-1, but overall, favorites have been profitable bets. Underdogs like Mine That Bird and Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022) make great stories but are rare exceptions. The Derby’s history often leans toward the horse with the shortest odds.
Odds Change but Don’t Always Reflect the Best Pick
Unlike most sports betting, where oddsmakers control the lines, the Kentucky Derby’s odds shift based entirely on the amount of money bet on each horse. This pari-mutuel system means popular horses see their odds drop as more people bet on them.
A horse that starts at 10-1 might drop to 5-1 as race day approaches. That doesn’t mean it suddenly became twice as likely to win. Public betting influences these changes, but mass money from casual fans often distorts the numbers.
Some bettors try to follow the late-line movement, assuming the public knows something they don’t. In reality, this has rarely been a reliable way to predict winners.
Trainers Hold the Keys to Success
Trainers don’t get the same attention as horses and jockeys, but their impact can’t be overlooked. They decide a horse’s training, conditioning, and strategy leading to the Derby. Particular trainers have built reputations for consistently producing champions.
Bob Baffert was once the most dominant trainer in the sport, winning six Kentucky Derbies before his suspension in 2021. His absence left a gap that Brad Cox has begun to fill. Cox has three horses in this year’s field, including Catching Freedom, one of the more intriguing contenders.
A skilled trainer doesn’t guarantee victory, but history suggests their influence is a significant factor in preparing a horse for the biggest race of its life.
Memorable Wins That Defined the Kentucky Derby
Over the years, the Kentucky Derby has produced unforgettable moments. Some wins cemented legacies, and others shocked the world. The Derby has a way of delivering drama that keeps fans and bettors coming back every year.
Secretariat’s Record-Setting Performance (1973)
Few moments in sports history compare to Secretariat’s Kentucky Derby win. Not only did he win, but he set a course record—1:59 2/5—that still stands today. The ease with which he accelerated down the stretch signaled the arrival of a true legend. His dominance didn’t stop there, as he captured the Triple Crown with record-setting performances in the Preakness and Belmont.
The Greatest Longshot: Donerail (1913)
A century ago, Donerail pulled off the biggest upset in Derby history. He shocked the world at 91-1 odds with a win that delivered the highest payout recorded in the race. Most bettors dismissed him as an afterthought. That proved to be a mistake. His unlikely triumph remains one of the most famous moments in horse racing.
A Fierce Rivalry: Affirmed vs. Alydar (1978)
Horse racing thrives on rivalries, and none were more intense than Affirmed and Alydar. Their battle in the 1978 Kentucky Derby was just the beginning of a Triple Crown showdown. Affirmed edged out Alydar in all three races, solidifying his place among the greats. The margin of victory was razor-thin, which only added to the drama.
Mine That Bird’s Shocking 2009 Run
The 2009 Derby didn’t just have an upset—it had a complete shocker. Mine That Bird, a 50-1 longshot, delivered a performance that no one saw coming. His charge from the back of the pack stunned the field, with Calvin Borel guiding him through an opening on the inside rail. When he crossed the finish line six lengths ahead, it didn’t just defy the odds—it became a story for the ages.
Takeaway
The Kentucky Derby is a race where history and unpredictability collide. Betting trends have long pointed to key factors, yet the Derby proves that anything can happen year after year. Longshots have shocked the world, legendary horses have cemented their legacies, and underdog stories have become part of racing history.
Whether the 2025 Derby follows tradition or delivers another unforgettable upset, one thing is sure—when the gates open, all bets are off.
