Although soccer may not be the top sport in the US, the USMNT has had an impact on the biggest soccer tournament of all, the World Cup, right from the start. At the very first tournament, in 1930, the US won twice in the group stage and reached the semi-finals, eventually defeated by tournament runner-up Argentina. Twenty years later, the USA once again made World Cup headlines, beating a highly rated England team who were playing in the tournament for the first time. And in the last thirty years, the USMNT has been a regular feature at the World Cup, qualifying for seven in a row from 1990 and reaching the last eight back in 2002.
Failure to qualify for the 2018 tournament was a major disappointment in US soccer, but this year, they will once again return to the top level of international football when they compete with 31 other nations in Qatar. While Gregg Berhalter’s team is not among the betting favorites for the 2022 World Cup, US fans will be hoping that they can get through the initial stages and then spring a few surprises.
The historical record gives them a 50/50 chance, as they have made it out of the group stage of the tournament five times in the ten World Cups that they have played in. But they have a tough task on their hands this year as they’ve been drawn with England, Wales, and Iran. Only two of the four teams will qualify for the knockout stages, and sportsbooks rate the US as third favorite.
They will also have less time than most other teams to adjust. Group B fixtures begin on day one of the tournament, and the USA will be up against their group’s second favorite, Wales.
That first game will be vital. A win first up is not only a great confidence booster, it takes a lot of the weight off the remaining two games in the group. However, if the USMNT lost that game, it would put more pressure on them to perform well in their next and most difficult matchup against a highly rated and improving England team. Stopping Gareth Bale, the star player of the Welsh team, will be crucial.
The star-studded squad led by Gareth Southgate, which advanced to the World Cup semifinals in 2018 and the Euro 2020 final last year, is full of young talent and has been climbing the rankings. A strong showing in the opening game is crucial to the USMNT’s chances because England is the clear group favorite and Berhalter’s side won’t be able to count on getting anything from that game.
The final match in Group B is against Iran and will be the only game of the three where the US will be favored. But that brings the danger of complacency. Iran notably overcame the USA at the 1998 World Cup in France and this fixture will inevitably bring its own tension. At the same time, it is the easiest game on paper, and having it third on the schedule could be helpful.
Predicting how the group will develop is risky, but we can make an attempt to estimate how many points the US will need to qualify. With three points available for a win, the maximum number of points the USMNT can earn is nine. Mathematically, however, any total of five or above will be enough to guarantee them a place in the knockout phase.
Four points, is, however, the most common total at this stage of the tournament, and this number of points only gives a team a fifty-fifty chance of progressing. Since 1998, 34 teams have finished on four points at the end of the group stage and 17 have qualified. If the games in Group B go roughly to form, the USMNT will lose to England, perhaps draw with Wales, and hope to beat Iran, giving them four points. That was the tally in 2014 and the US progressed thanks to a better goal difference than Portugal.
Thus, the opening match versus Wales is really important. The climate may also work in the USMNT’s favor. Players who are based in the USA are likely to be more familiar with playing soccer in the hot conditions of Qatar than northern European opponents. You can be sure that Berhalter’s coaching team will be leaving nothing to chance and doing everything they can to give the USA the best chance of winning their opening game to put them in a strong qualifying position.
